“After Donald Trump’s victory, Ukraine’s largest military backer yet will be led by someone who has repeatedly said he would quickly end the war with Russia.
In all likelihood, any peace deal would be on Russia’s terms rather than Ukraine’s: Ukrainian acceptance of Russian territorial gains, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the territories occupied since. Trump is also likely to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands to prevent future Ukrainian membership of NATO. Given Trump’s hostility toward NATO, this would also put pressure on Kiev’s European allies: Trump could again threaten to abandon the alliance to get the Europeans to sign a deal with Putin.
But for a deal to work, even in the short term, Trump will also need Putin to sign it. Yet the Russian president is currently not under any particular pressure to simply accept a deal. Russia continues to make gains in the Donbas, pushing Ukrainian troops back into Kursk with the help of North Korean soldiers. But in the same way that Trump is likely to threaten to cut off all support from Kiev to bring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on board, Trump could also put pressure on Moscow by considering more military aid to Ukraine and any restrictions on its use to lift. of American and allied weapons, including against targets deep in Russia.
In the short term, this would not necessarily lead to an immediate Ukrainian victory, but it would make a Russian victory impossible in the near future and could undo some of Moscow’s recent gains in eastern Ukraine. Given Trump’s unpredictability, this may not be a bluff that Putin dares to call.
In the long run, however, a deal Trump makes with Russia over the heads of his EU and NATO allies, and by threatening them with surrender, would undermine the longevity of any deal with Moscow: the still relatively bleak state of European defense capabilities and the declining credibility of the US nuclear umbrella can only encourage Putin to further expand his imperial ambitions once he reaches a settlement in Ukraine.”