From Wednesday, Europe will be a little more alone on the international stage. The victory of the Republican populist Donald Trump the American elections shocked the European Union. The return of the unpredictable tycoon to the White House has major consequences for the security of the EU, which is heavily dependent on the American umbrella and which could remain virtually the only significant source of support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion. Trump threatens an escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing, with consequences for the EU bloc, and an increase in tariffs that could take a heavy toll on member states. The euro has already suffered, losing about 2% against the dollar, which is rising against all currencies.
The consequences are global, but in an EU where the far right and populism are on the rise in the post-pandemic era – as we saw in the European elections in Juneas well as in the Dutch, French and Austrian elections – the tycoon’s victory could fuel an extremist wave at a time when the EU’s two main members, Germany and France, have badly weakened governments. One of Trump’s closest European allies, the Hungarian national-conservative populist Viktor Orbán, the EU’s wayward partner and closest to the Kremlin among its leaders, is already preparing to pop the champagne, as he announced a few weeks ago. “The greatest comeback in American political history!” he said on social media on Wednesday. “A much-needed victory for the world!” the Hungarian Prime Minister added.
Orbán will host European leaders at a summit in Budapest on Thursday and Friday, where the Republican’s victory and the challenges it poses for the Old Continent will be addressed. There will be a meeting on Thursday of the countries that make up the European Political Community (EPC), the forum that brings together the EU and European states that do not belong to the bloc. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to be present. He has already rushed to congratulate Trump and note that he hopes Washington will maintain its economic and military support, which had already become increasingly difficult under the Biden administration.
“We are facing a moment of great uncertainty that could mark the future of the European continent, but this new victory by Trump could be a wake-up call for the Union to stop outsourcing its security and no longer to be so dependent on its American ally. said a senior EU source. The tycoon has even threatened to do so pull the US out of NATObut that scenario is extremely difficult.
European leaders are looking anxiously ahead to the next four years, when the White House will be occupied by Trump, who has cultivated a relationship with Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin and has promised to end the war in Ukraine before he even comes to power. At the same time, they know that the United States is an important partner for Europe in the areas of energy, trade and security. The global situation is extremely volatile, with the conflict raging in the Middle East almost certain North Korean soldiers are already on Russian soil and entered into battle in Ukraine.
In this context, pragmatism will prevail, like that of French President Emmanuel Macron. “Ready to work together as we have done for four years. With your beliefs and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity,” he wrote on the X-owned social network Trump ally Elon Musk. Macron, one of the EU’s lame ducks, the weakened leaders in their final term, spoke by phone Wednesday with another European leader whose position is also vulnerable due to his government’s internal problems, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, about how the preservation of European interests.
“The EU and the US are more than just allies,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on the same social network. “We are connected by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens. So let’s work together on a strong transatlantic agenda that continues to deliver results for them,” the German conservative added. who is about to start a second term.
Brussels and most European capitals have been preparing for possible scenarios after the US elections for months and are drawing up contingency plans. The return of Trump – who will turn his attention to the Indo-Pacific region and thus divert much of the attention Washington has had from Europe, which it will lose on security – was one of them. But the New York magnate will also return strong and justified. with Senate control and, expectedly, from the House of Representatives. The Republican has announced that he wants to increase tariffs on European products. In Brussels, this increase is expected to reach 20%, but it could go further. It is also likely to have an uneven impact on Member States’ GDP. The trade war with China would also have secondary consequences in Europe, as Beijing could shift some of its trade flow to the EU, impacting European manufacturers and products.
The coming months until Trump’s inauguration will be crucial for the EU. Brussels hopes to forge relationships with its future team to soften the blow and perhaps even reach an agreement that will prevent a trade escalation. No one knows what a second term will entail for the unpredictable Republican. The first was disruptive, but in many ways ended with a transaction with European partners. The EU institutions are confident that this will continue to be the pattern in the coming years: it would be the best-case scenario.
Defense considerations will also be on the table, as the EU looks for money under the couch cushions to continue supporting Kiev in the face of Hungarian vetoes. The return to the negotiating table to end Russia’s war against Ukraine could now come more quickly, under pressure from Trump.
Beyond these elements, the challenge for the EU is to outline a coordinated response and action plan for the new government among the 27 member states. It will not be easy with partners like Orbán in the bloc, but also with the Slovak populist Robert Fico or even the far-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has had a good relationship with the Republican team and with the populist tycoon Elon Musk. , who is expected to have a key position in the next US administration. “Good job, President Trump!” Meloni said on than the NATO obligation – could make that difficult.
Meanwhile, Trump’s victory will continue to fuel the extremist wave in Europe. The very far right in the Union has already rushed to congratulate him and hope to justify the policies they share; the hard discourse against immigration, against sexual and reproductive rights, against abortion and, more generally, against the umbrella of the welfare state as established in Europe.
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