On December 10, just days after the collapse of That of Bashar al-Assad government inside Syria, Israel the most launched extensive military air campaign in its history against a neighboring country.
Dubbed “Bashan arrowDuring this operation, 350 Israeli Air Force fighter jets attacked 320 strategic targets across Syria, from Damascus to Tartus.
These include air bases, MiG-29 fighter jets, Scud missile batteries, unmanned aerial vehicles, radar installations and naval vessels, among other critical infrastructure.
The offensive destroyed more than 70 percent of Syria’s strategic military assets, leaving the country vulnerable to fragmentation and foreign influence.
This aggressive campaign did not happen in isolation. It came within the context of years of tacit understandings between Israel and the Assad regime, in which Israel protected its interests in the occupied Golan Heights and regarded Assad as a difficult but predictable neighbor.
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The calm on the Golan front, which lasted more than half a century, was a testament to this uneasy status quo. Now that Assad is gone, Israel seems determined to see to it that no successor regime, rebel coalition or foreign actor can challenge its position in the region.
The Israeli attacks mark a major turning point for Syria, a country now struggling to rebuild after the fall of Assad.
Syria’s internal divisions
The scale and focus of the military operation raise pressing questions about Israel’s intentions and its long-term effects on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Analysts have drawn comparisons to the perceived chaos in Iraq after the USled invasion and That of Libya fragmented post-Gaddafi reality.
The Israeli occupation of even more Syrian areas near the Golan Heights increases this uncertainty.
The Golan, a region of strategic and symbolic significance, was annexed Israel in 1981a move deemed illegal by the United Nations. Since the fall of Assad, Israel has expanded its control. even confiscating one UN-guarded buffer zone.
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This occupation has not drawn condemnation from Western countries, despite UN confirmations of Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated this unequivocally “The Golan will forever be part of the State of Israel.” This position underlines Israel’s strategy of securing territorial gains while taking advantage of Syria’s instability to consolidate its regional dominance.
The Israeli occupation and military actions are likely to do the same deepen internal divisions within Syria, assembling factions aimed at nation-building against those who prioritize the liberation of occupied territories. These dynamic mirrors Lebanon’s long struggle under Israeli occupation, where internal divisions hampered stability and governance.
If Syrian factions focused on reconstruction are given priority, they risk losing legitimacy as long as the Syrian land remains occupied.
Conversely, prioritizing the fight against Israel could lead to premature defeats and further chaos, diverting crucial resources from nation-building efforts. In In both cases, Israel benefits: a fragmented Syria is less able to pose a threat to its security and territorial ambitions.
For Syrians, this division represents a cruel paradox. Rebuilding their nation requires prioritizing stability and reconstruction, but doing so under occupation risks alienating significant portions of the population who view resistance as a national necessity.
The resulting rifts will make it difficult for any transitional government to maintain legitimacy and cohesion.
Security vacuum
The destruction of Syria’s military capabilities mirrors the dismantling of the Iraqi army during the US invasion, creating a security vacuum that invites foreign intervention and the rise of non-state actors. Syrian rebels and transitional authorities now face an enormous challenge: rebuilding a functional army while meeting the needs of a fractured population.
Israel’s actions also undermine efforts to regain territory controlled by other groups, including the US-backed Kurdish group, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). By eroding Syria’s military capacity, Israel is creating long-term instability, preventing any coherent effort to address the occupation or counter its influence.
Moreover, the Israeli attacks did not only target military means. Intelligence archives were also destroyed, containing data that could have shed light on Assad’s ties to global networks and states, including Israel itself.
Reports of secret agreements between Assad’s government and Israel, allegedly managed through Russian intermediaries, have come to light in the wake of his downfall. These revelations complicate efforts to rebuild trust among Syrians and establish a new government free from the shadow of Assad’s controversial legacy.
This military degradation creates fertile ground for the emergence of parallel militias, some of which likely focused on opposing Israel rather than contributing to Syria’s reconstruction. Such a development would reflect Libya’s chaotic patchwork of armed factions, with foreign powers backing competing groups for their own strategic purposes.
Israeli support for Kurdish separatism is part of a broader strategy to divide and weaken its regional rivals
Israel’s strategy is consistent with its broader regional objectives, including support for Kurdish elements in Syria.
Israeli officials have openly expressed interest in cultivating ties with the Kurdish YPG, a group linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, the EU, NATO and others. This support threatens to further embroil Syria in regional disputes, especially with Turkeyand to deepen internal divisions.
The YPG has previously worked with actors as diverse as Assad’s government. Iran, Russia and the US could become a new instrument in Israel’s strategy towards Syria. This potential partnership threatens to inflame tensions between Syria’s ethnic groups, complicate reconstruction efforts and alienate Syrians already wary of perceived foreign manipulation.
Israeli support for Kurdish separatism is part of a broader strategy to divide and weaken its regional rivals. By encouraging the fragmentation of SyriaIsrael diverts attention his actions in Palestine and Lebanon, while ensuring that a unified Syrian state does not emerge that challenges its territorial ambitions.
This approach mirrors tactics in Lebanon during the civil war, where Israel fostered alliances with local factions to safeguard its interests. It could also invite foreign intervention in Syria to resist Israel’s interference and occupation. Iran is a potential actor in this sense.
Regional instability
Turkey, a major regional player, views the YPG as an existential threat. Any cooperation between Israel and the YPG would strain relations between Israel and Turkey, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict.
Such tensions could further destabilize Syria as outside powers exploit the chaos to further their own agendas.
Syria’s current trajectory draws stark parallels to other Middle Eastern countries torn by foreign interventions and internal divisions.
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In Iraq, the dismantling of the national army created a power vacuum that gave rise to insurgent groups and long-term instability.
In Libya, the fall of Gaddafi led to a fractured state where armed factions, backed by competing foreign powers, struggle for control.
In Lebanon, the Israeli occupation has fostered internal divisions that have hampered the country’s recovery from the civil war.
Syria now runs the risk of combining these elements: a weak central government, competing militias and foreign interventions that perpetuate instability.
The Israeli occupation and interventions threaten to transform Syria into a fractured state, plagued by internal conflict, weakened institutions and foreign agendas. This trajectory threatens not only the future of Syria, but also the stability of the broader region and would ultimately backfire, threatening Israel itself in the long term.
To prevent further destabilization, international actors must push for a reevaluation of Israeli policy in Syria.
Supporting Syria’s sovereignty and promoting a real path to reconstruction are crucial to ensuring the country’s unity and stability. Without such efforts, Syria risks becoming another failed state in a region already marred by conflict and division.
Israel’s actions may provide short-term security benefits, but they demoralize a population still celebrating the fall of the regime.
Rather than promoting a stable and secure Syria, the long-term outcome could be continued instability and escalating regional conflicts.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.