- The Houthis have threatened key shipping lanes with missiles and drones over the past year.
- The US-led military response has failed to effectively stop the rebels from attacking ships.
- A more aggressive approach is unlikely, leaving the conflict at an impasse.
On a blue-sky day last November, a helicopter carrying Houthi gunmen descended on a commercial shipping vessel in the Red Sea. The rebels jumped out, seized control of the ship and took the crew hostage. They are still in captivity in Yemen.
The dramatic hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, that was captured on videocatapulted the Houthis into the global spotlight. The rebels did just that in the following year threatened major shipping routes in the Middle East with missiles and drones, disrupting maritime trade.
The US military has led a Western naval coalition in the fight against the Houthis to curb their brutal attacks, but a year of intense fighting has not brought the US any closer to ending the rebel threat – and for now, a more aggressive approach does not appear to be the desired course.
“We are not looking for a military solution in Yemen at this time,” US Special Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking recently told Business Insider. He said pursuing such an outcome could cause more destruction in a country devastated by years of war.
“To pursue that would subject Yemen to even more years of death and destruction and military conflict,” he explained, arguing that “it is essential to take into account the impact on Yemeni civilians, the impact on Yemen’s economy and infrastructure, on the ability to move supplies in, the ability for commercial goods to enter Yemen.”
That cautious approach to the ongoing Houthi crisis leaves the U.S. military engaged in combat operations without a clear path to victory.
‘The threat remains’
The Houthis have launched more than 130 attacks on military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. the Iranian-backed rebels claim is related to the war between Israel and Hamas. They hit a number of commercial ships, sinking two and hijacking one (the Galaxy Leader). and killed four sailors.
Footage released by the Houthis shows an explosion on a commercial ship during an attack. The rebels have deployed a variety of weapons, including anti-ship missiles, drones and unmanned naval vessels.
Photo by Houthi Media Center via Getty Images
Merchant shipping through the Red Sea normally accounts for as much as 15% of global maritime trade, the US Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report earlier this year. However, the continued Houthi attacks have done just that caused a notable decline in activity along that critical route, forcing ships to make longer and more expensive voyages through Africa.
U.S. warships and aircraft operating in the region are routinely taxed intercepting Houthi missiles and drones to defend important shipping routes. The military has also carried out air strikes against the rebels in Yemen, targeting their weapons, launchers and other facilities.
The Pentagon has said these efforts are intended to degrade the Houthis’ capabilities, but the rebels still retain the ability to target ships. For example, this month alone they have launched attacks on a commercial vessel and several American destroyersalthough they have yet to score a hit on a warship.
Analysts from the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies said last month that while Houthi attacks on commercial ships have decreased, the response – including US, British and Israeli attacks – has been inadequate over the past year.
“The threat remains, and not much appears to be changing,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw military operations in the Middle East as commander of U.S. Central Command in the 2010s, told BI.
He said U.S. military operations are “clearly focused on trying to defend ourselves and going after launch sites, manufacturing sites, storage sites and maybe some command and control sites — but that doesn’t seem to deter the Houthis at all.”
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Limited options
Some analysts have said the US should consider a more aggressive response to the Houthis, including greater efforts to restrict the flow of weapons and capabilities from Iran.
Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, wrote in a analysis earlier this month that “allowing the Houthis to extend their gradual escalation campaign is a far more dangerous policy choice for the US in the long run than a more decisive military effort would have been.”
The Navy admiral overseeing naval operations in the Middle East has said this is only military action won’t be enough to stop the rebels. “The solution does not come at the end of a weapons system,” Vice Adm. George Wikoff, head of US Naval Forces Central Command, emphasized at a think tank event in August.
However, there is a diplomatic solution remains unclear. The Houthis have linked their actions to the Gaza war, but it remains to be seen whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will prompt them to stop their attacks. The rebels did not adhere until a lull in the fighting last fall.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet prepares for launch from the Eisenhower’s cockpit. The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier has led the bulk of the military’s counter-Houthi operations.
US Navy photo
With no apparent end in sightthe conflict has raised real concerns about sustainability. Over the past year, the Navy has turned up the heat hundreds of rounds of ammunition in its activities in the Middle East, costs more than $1.8 billion and strip the Pentagon of key missiles that are expensive to purchase.
Votel, now a leading senior fellow on national security at the Middle East Institute think tank, said the US can continue to send warships into battle, but the conflict influence other priorities within the Pentagon’s national security strategy, such as China’s growing military capabilities.
There is no indication that U.S. Navy activity will decline. Officials emphasize that Washington will continue to act against the Houthis to stop their attacks. Even like some warships left the Middle East other ships arrived earlier this month take their place.
“We are committed to ensuring freedom of navigation and ensuring that ships can pass through the Red Sea,” said Lenderking, the US envoy.
“Of course, much of the international trade flowing through the Red Sea has adapted to alternatives,” he added. “But we believe that the fact that a non-state actor is attacking the international community in this way is not something that we or the international community should adhere to.”
But for now it is unclear what will stop this.
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