Another week, another batch College Football Playoff rankings for sure make almost everyone angry – and give certain conferences the opportunity to support their counterparts. We’re still a long way from these rankings actually mattering, but it does give us an idea of what the committee is thinking and which teams and conferences they’re rating favorably as the season comes to a close.
And that matters quite a bit. While an automatic bid to each of the five highest-ranked conference champions guarantees that at least one team from each major conference – plus another from the Group of Five – will take the field, no matter how strong (or not so strong) the committee thinks each conference will go a long way in determining the fate of every other team in that conference. So let’s read the tea leaves and see which conferences are best positioned for the stretch run.
|
Conference |
Number of shifts |
|---|---|
|
SEC |
9 |
|
Big 10 |
4 |
|
ACC |
4 |
|
Big 12 |
3 |
|
Group of Five |
3 |
|
Independents |
2 |
Just like last week in the first rankings, the SEC leads the way here, actually expanding its overall lead over the Big 10 thanks to South Carolina’s rise to the top 25. But the picture is a different story: All four Big 10 teams are currently in the top five overall, an ideal position to eventually earn at-large bids, while two-loss SEC teams like Georgia and Texas A&M could be on the outside looking in when all is said and done. If the season were to end today, both the Big 10 and SEC would each have four playoff teams.
The ACC (4) and Big 12 (3) each dropped a team this week, as Pittsburgh and Iowa State fell completely out of the rankings thanks to back-to-back losses. Their loss was G5’s gain, and Tulane enters the chat for the first time this season. At No. 25, the Green Wave are still well behind No. 13 Boise State in the race to determine the top-ranked Group of Five conference champions, but they still have a potential matchup with No. 24 Army in the AAC title game; winning that leaves them well-positioned if the Broncos stumble at any point.
There are only four ACC teams in the CFP top 25 this week, and things are looking increasingly bleak for the conference’s playoff hopes.
SMU was perhaps the biggest loser of the night, somehow dropping a spot despite having a bye. The Mustangs will have one more chance at a statement victory in the ACC title game, but at this point it appears they will duke it out with Miami or Clemson for the conference’s only automatic bid. With Clemson buried all the way down in 20th place and no other team with two or fewer losses, it’s clear the committee isn’t looking kindly on this conference right now.
Do you value quality or quantity? We know the Big 10’s answer, as all four of the top 25 teams are in the top five of the overall standings, including each of the top two spots.
These rankings were good news for Indiana, which didn’t look all that convincing on Saturday after a narrow 5-5 win against Michigan, but still sits in fifth place in the overall standings. Given the committee’s obvious respect for Ohio State, even a somewhat competitive loss in Columbus over two Saturdays should be enough to earn the Hoosiers an at-large bid. Unless something unpredictable happens, the winner of that game will likely head to Indianapolis to face Oregon, leaving out Penn State while still securing an at-large bid in the CFP.
Like the ACC, it appears the Big 12 is trending toward becoming a one-bid conference.
Kansas State and Colorado are both buried behind a slew of other teams with two losses in the race for a spot in the overall rankings, and neither has a CFP-ranked team on the schedule yet. It’s possible one of them can beat BYU in the conference title game, grabbing the automatic bid with the Cougars still coming in at 12-1, but BYU’s resume might not look that great when all is said and done .
The SEC has more than doubled every other conference, with a whopping nine teams in the rankings, but they still have reason to be angry with the committee: Only three of those nine teams fall into the top 10, and several appear to be in the to be on the wrong side. the great bubble as things stand now.
Tennessee’s showdown with Georgia this Saturday is an elimination game for the Dawgs, while Texas-Texas A&M will go a long way toward determining who plays for the conference title in Atlanta at the end of the year.
Again, the committee is not buying what the Army Black Knights are selling.
Group of five:
Boise State dropped one spot after a seven-point win against Nevada. Army controlled the game in a 14-3 win over North Texas and remained undefeated, but they only moved up one spot in the CFP rankings. Army still has a chance to make a statement by beating Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium, but at this point it seems virtually impossible for Jeff Monken’s team to make the playoff without a Boise loss and a win over likely Tulane in the AAC title game.
Independents:
Washington State is considered an independent state for these purposes, as the two-team Pac-12 is not eligible for an automatic bid to the conference. John Mateer and the gang have been a fun story, but it won’t be enough for an at-large bid even if the Cougs win against New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming.
The Irish continue to be dragged down in their loss to Northern Illinois in September, and while that’s a big black mark on the resume, Riley Leonard and Co. it’s going on now. Notre Dame appears to be in a good position to land an at-large bid if they win, but that seed likely won’t be as high as fans would like when all is said and done.