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The resounding victories of Republicans across Pennsylvania at the federal and state levels in Tuesday’s elections can be summed up in one reason: voters’ anger.
Voters were angry about an economy that has made them pay more for housing, groceries and gasoline, and angry about an immigration policy that sent border crossings to a record high last year, political analysts and others said. Lehigh Valley armchair.
As has been the case historically, voters blamed the party in control of the White House, said Christopher Borick, director of the Institute for Public Opinion at Muhlenberg College.
As President Joe Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, became the target of their ire.
“You start and end with the public mood and the political cycles,” he said in an interview Wednesday. “This year it completely benefited the Republicans.”
Berwood Yost, director of the Institute for Public Policy at Franklin & Marshall College, said it’s not surprising that the anger has trickled down to other races.
“At a time of significant polarization, it would be unusual if there were a significant difference in party preferences during the vote,” he said in an email.
In Tuesday’s election, former President Donald Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.70% of the vote, to Harris’ 48.35%, according to unofficial state figures. Thanks to Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes, the Republican won 292 electoral votes – 22 more than needed to win the election.
While the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican David McCormick, who has a slight lead, is too close to call, Republicans took all three statewide offices — Dave Sunday won as attorney general; re-elected were Tim DeFoor as auditor general and Stacy Garrity as state treasurer.
In a stunning upset, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie denied incumbent Democrat Susan Wild a fourth term in the 7th Congressional District, defeating her 50.7% to 49.3%.
- Republican Ryan Mackenzie unseated incumbent U.S. Rep. Susan Wild in the 7th District
Republicans also picked up at least one other congressional seat — in the 8th, where Democrat Matt Cartwright (49.02%) lost to Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. (50.98%). Control of the House of Representatives is still undecided, while the US Senate has switched to the Republicans.
Four incumbent Lehigh Valley House Republicans — Joe Emrick (137th), Milou Mackenzie (131st), Ann Flood (138th) and Zach Mako (183rd) — sailed to victories over their Democratic challengers.
Emrick’s victory came even as his Democratic challenger Anna Thomas raised more than $1 million in cash donations and received more than $570,000 in in-kind contributions to hire him.
In the 187th, Republican Gary Day, who lost his seat in the 2022 primary, regained his seat.
Control of the state House, where Democrats have a narrow majority, was still undecided, while Republicans were expected to retain the Senate.
- Night of victories for Lehigh Valley Republicans in State House races
Opinion polls predicted voter anger over inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 but has since fallen, hitting a low of 2.4% in September. The economy emerged as the No. 1 issue, even as The Wall Street Journal said the next president “will inherit a remarkable economy.”
Borick said the high costs of housing, gas and food were affecting voters.
“We see it, we feel it. Locally that is important,” he said.
Immigration was also high on the list. Borick said the Biden administration made an “unforced error” by allowing border crossings in Mexico to reach a record monthly high in December. He said there was a feeling that border crossings between the parties needed to be put to an end.
Borick said Republican gains in voter registration reflected the mood of voters and translated into votes at the polls. In Pennsylvania, the Republican Party saw its voter turnout increase by 211,336 – more than twice that of Democrats.
- GOP registers twice as many voters as Democrats in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley
With his 3,346,902 votes, Trump won 130,130 more votes than Harris, according to the latest unofficial figures in Pennsylvania. He also beat his 2020 vote tally by 59,031 votes. Conversely, Harris received 180,752 fewer votes than Biden in 2020.
As a candidate, Borick said Harris “ran a very good campaign overall” but said “she faced real headwinds.”
This time, the funding and ground game advantage that Harris and other Democrats enjoyed did not work out, Borick said.
That was evident in the 7th Congressional District race, where Wild raised $8.1 million and spent $7.5 million, according to the latest FEC data. Mackenzie has raised about $1 million and spent about $800,000 since his hard-fought, victorious three-way primary on April 23.
“Many people had discounted this campaign: we were dramatically behind, behind in public opinion polls, left out of consideration by many experts and far behind forecasts,” Arnaud Armstrong, Mackenzie’s campaign spokesman, said in an email on Wednesday. mail.
Armstrong said Mackenzie ran a lean operation with experienced executives who could replicate the work of large consulting firms.
“We also knew the district well: everyone on our team had experienced the Republican losses in the Lehigh Valley in recent years and we learned the lessons. The end result is that we had a nimble, scrappy campaign that managed to punch well above its weight.”
Glenn Geissinger, chairman of the Northampton County Republican Committee, said the Republican candidates were united in their support of each other.
“In 2024, Donald Trump was running as a former president and running at record levels,” Geissinger said. “He realized it was imperative to have Republicans in power at all levels, and his message was shared and reached everyone.”
That effort led to Trump winning Northampton County with 88,171 votes (50.63%), compared to 84,291 for Harris (48.40%). In 2020, Biden won there with 85,087 (49.78%), compared to 83,854 for Trump (49.05%). For example, Trump won 4,317 votes in the province in 2020.
Lori McFarland, chair of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, said her party members are “catatonic and numb” about their defeats.
Democrats had 100,000 local and outside volunteers on the ground to promote candidates in the Lehigh Valley. “I am very proud of all the volunteers,” she says.
McFarland admitted the economy was weighing heavily on people’s minds, but said other factors also played a role.
She believes Harris’ abbreviated candidacy — she entered the race in July after Biden dropped out — gave little time to get her message across.
She also thinks racism and misogyny led people to choose Trump over Harris.
Despite the Republican victories, Yost said the results still show a divided country.
“I think it’s also important to put this in context. President Trump’s overall victory will not represent a landslide, either in the Electoral College or in the popular vote, Yost said.
“His likely number of electoral votes will likely be similar to Biden’s in 2020 and well below the electoral college landslides of ’80, ’84 or even ’08. Secondly, incumbent parties have lost elections in many countries in recent years, which I think shows a kind of post-COVID dissatisfaction with governance that transcends borders.”
None of Lehigh Valley’s three senators — Democrats Lisa Boscola (18th) and Nick Miller (14th) and Republican Jarrett Coleman (16th) — were up for re-election. Incumbent Democrats Joshua Siegel (22nd); Mike Schossberg (132nd); Jeanne McNeill (133rd); Peter Schweyer (134th); Steve Samuelson (135th) and Robert Freeman (136th) went unchallenged in their re-election bids for the State House.