A majority in the House of Representatives could give Donald Trump the necessary power to enact some of his most ambitious policies — or serve as a critical check on his worst impulses.
The steady erosion of power from the legislature to the executive over decades means that the majority in Congress is less important than it should be. Still, the only remaining piece of the 2024 election puzzle is a big prize, and as of Wednesday afternoon, it remains uncertain. The results of the few House races that have yet to be called will set the stage for next year’s huge budget showdown — the centerpiece of which is the expiration of some of the tax cuts passed during Trump’s first term — and will similarly impact Trump’s supposed plans to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget.
More about that later. First, let’s look at the scoreboard. From Wednesday 3.30 pm The New York Times had called 200 House races for Republicans and 183 for Democrats, with 52 races still undetermined. The Associated Press, meanwhile, had Republicans forward 201-186 and 48 still too close to call. Remember: 218 seats are needed to have a majority in the Chamber.
After Trump’s victory and the Republican Party’s takeover of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday evening, it may seem as if a Republican majority in the House of Representatives is a foregone conclusion. That’s not necessarily true, as congressional races are sometimes decided by a combination of crazy gerrymandering and local issues that defy national trends. In the district where I live—Virginia’s 7th District, which is still undecided—most of the ads in the final days of the election focused on how one candidate pretended for a photo that he had a family, while the another would have lied about his military service. . These things are getting weird.
Yet the numbers clearly show that Democrats are doing well a very narrow path to victory at this moment.
The size of a future Republican majority will matter too – won’t it, like Nate Silver put ita “functional GOP majority versus a dysfunctional GOP majority.” We have seen in recent years how a small majority can hand over excessive power to small factions. Yes, the mob at the Republican conference may have less reason to take action with Trump in the White House and a Republican majority in the Senate, but the difference between a three-seat majority and a ten-seat majority could be greater could have been. major consequences for even the most basic legislative tasks, such as choosing a speaker and approving a budget.
It will take days, possibly longer, for all results from the nearest home results are known.
In a saner republic we would all be on pins and needles to see the results in the Iowa 1st, the Pennsylvania 8th, the Virginia 7th, and so on. There should be House control the biggest prize in any election cycle, since Congress is constitutionally the most powerful branch of the federal government and the House of Representatives is the part of Congress that most directly responds to the people.
That is obviously not the world we currently live in.
And indeed, control of Congress is unlikely to matter when it comes to much of the agenda Trump has outlined for a second term. He will have that broad power Unpleasant unilaterally determined rates and impose other trade barriers, through the Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Are plan for mass deportation and other immigration restriction policies could be implemented by executive order and enforced by the Department of Homeland Security and the Border Patrol. If Trump makes good on his threats go after unfriendly media outlets (maybe by focused on their broadcasting licenses), he will be able to rely on appointees at the Federal Communications Commission to do the dirty work. And, as the Biden administration has amply demonstrated, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) can be flexible broad and vague powers about many aspects of the economy and the decisions of private companies (in ways that some of Trump’s allies have applauded).
The one big thing that still depends on Congress is the annual federal budget — or at least the ongoing resolutions and omnibus bills that replace it every year — and questions about where the government gets its tax revenue.
These issues will be more important than usual next year as large portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are enacted expire at the end of 2025. Unless Congress extends the TCJA’s lower individual tax rates, virtually all Americans will be taxpayers will face a tax increase in 2026. Of course, extending these tax cuts must be accompanied by compensating spending cuts, which Congress will have to decide. And with Trump’s ally Elon Musk promises $2 trillion in cuts of the federal budget, Congress’ appropriators could have a very busy year ahead.
A Republican majority in both chambers of Congress means Trump will have a free hand to pursue an aggressive overhaul of the federal budget and tax code, just as he did at the start of his first term. Even without 60 votes in the Senate, Republicans should be able to use it the reconciliation process to achieve their tax and expenditure objectives.
But remember: the last time they got that chance, Trump was overseeing a huge increase in expenditure That accrued even more debt. One-party control of the government is generally not a recipe for fiscal moderation, regardless of what is promised during the campaign.
A slim Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would certainly complicate the debate over what to do with the expiring portions of the TCJA. It would also give Democrats the ability to cut off funding for parts of Trump’s agenda and conduct investigations and oversee hearings that could limit abuses of power.
That’s why the remaining House races could end up being one of the most important aspects of this year’s election, even if they weren’t on your radar last night.