The Clemson Tigers are no longer in control of their own destiny when it comes to reaching the ACC title game or, more importantly, the College Football Playoffs.
After the disappointing defeat against the Cardinals of Louisville last Saturday the program is no longer in control based on the remaining schedule.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the model only has the Tigers with a 2.4 percent chance of winning the ACC.
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength and is intended to be the best predictor of a team’s performance for the remainder of the season. The assessment results are based on 20,000 simulations of the remainder of the season using FPI, the results to date and the remaining schedule.
While the team has just one loss in conference play following the 33-21 loss to Louisville, the Tigers won’t play either of the other two ACC contenders the rest of the way. Both Hurricanes in Miami and conference newcomer SMU Mustangs remain undefeated in ACC play. Not only will Clemson not play either of these two front-runners, but they won’t face each other again for the remainder of the regular season.
The best thing the Tigers can do is keep winning.
Before last week’s flat performance against the Cardinals, Clemson played just one bad half of a football game all season, coming up against the Georgian bulldogs. After failing to pin down the reigning National Champions in the second half and getting off to an early 0-1 start to the year, the Tigers rebounded to win six straight games, including their first five ACC matchups .
With only two conference showdowns left on the schedule, plus two non-conference games, Clemson has a 24.1 percent chance of winning its remaining games.
The biggest test for those who remain will be against the 23rd ranked team Pittsburgh Panthers in two weeks. If they can win both remaining ACC games, they will have to wait patiently for the possibility of Miami or SMU falling to get back into the ACC title game.
If that scenario doesn’t materialize, the Tigers still have a slim chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs as an at-large bid, assuming they win all four remaining games and post a 10-2 resume before committee. The model currently suggests a 7.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, but so does the possibility of winning the ACC. Mathematically, the chances of making it without competing for the conference championship are less than five percent.
So they need some help, but that help won’t mean anything if they lose another game. They are back in action on Saturday as they travel to Lane Stadium to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies. It won’t be an easy task as they look to earn their sixth win of the season and earn bowl eligibility for the second straight season.