Election Day in the US is officially Tuesday, but millions of Americans have already cast their votes. As early voting events drew lines across the country, more than 62.7 million voters had returned their ballots as of Thursday — a milestone.
Partisans on both sides have been quick to point to the early voting data as evidence that their side is gaining a decisive advantage. But what does it all mean? That’s a difficult question to answer.
There’s one thing we can say with certainty: American voting behavior has shifted as pandemic behavior changes persist. This year’s early vote count is far below the 101.5 million early votes cast in 2020, when the Covid virus kept many away from crowded polling stations, but it is more than the total number of early votes cast in 2016 (47.2 million ) or 2012 (46.2 million) was released. ).
While each state handles early voting differently, we can also learn something about who is participating. Some states release rough totals of votes cast via mail-in ballots, in-person voting days, or both. Many share voters’ party registration and sometimes more detailed demographic information, such as gender, race and age.
The rest of the picture, however, is much murkier, and any insight into this election season is best taken with a heavy dose of salt.
Many of the conclusions about early voting are drawn based on demographics alone. We won’t find out for which candidates these ballots were cast until Election Day.
But here’s what stands out to me, from state reports like compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab.
Fewer Republicans are waiting until Election Day
Republicans appear to be losing their fear of early voting. In 2020, they made up 30.5% of the total early votes cast in the 20 states that keep party registrations, compared to 44.8% for Democrats. That was partly due to Trump’s warning that mail-in voting was rife with corruption.
The former president is singing a different tune this year, and so have Republicans so far. They represent 36.1% of early votes cast nationwide, while Democrats represent 38.9% (the remaining quarter coming from voters who are not affiliated with a party or registered with a third party ).
That’s important because it means the “red mirage” effect may be less pronounced. Republicans took an early lead in places like Pennsylvania four years ago, as in-person votes were counted on Election Day before pollsters had counted early ballots, which tilted toward Democratic support.
Women are already showing up in large numbers
Meanwhile, Democrats could be encouraged by the gender gap this year — at least in early voting participation.
In the six states reporting gender data, including the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, women are casting 54.2% of the primary votes so far. That’s a few percentage points higher than the 2020 figure found in a post-election exit polls conducted by Edison Research.
If recent surveys are correct and women now support Democrats by a historically large margin, this could provide a boost for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Mixed picture in the main states
Looking at the individual states, in Georgia, more than 50% of eligible voters have now cast their ballots – a sign that voter enthusiasm is high. The early turnout there is slightly whiter and older than that of 2020’s early voters. That could help Donald Trump.
The former president is also getting good news in Nevada, where more registered Republicans cast ballots than registered Democrats. That’s a dramatic break from previous elections, when Democrats built a large early voting advantage, especially in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, helping them to victory despite a wave of rural conservatives who voted on Election Day.
However, like most early voting data, Nevada’s tabulations are marked with an asterisk. A growing number of young voters are now unaffiliated independent voters, even if they lean left. If they end up voting for Harris, the state could be put in Harris’ column on Election Day.
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There are similar glass-half-full or half-empty examples all over the map. In Pennsylvania, for example, more registered Democrats voted than Republicans — but they did so by a smaller margin than in 2020, when President Joe Biden won the state.
And that doesn’t take into account independent voters, frustrated moderate suburban Republicans who might vote for Harris, or traditional blue-collar Democrats who now back Trump.
And let’s not forget: In 2020, 158 million Americans cast their ballot for president – 65.9% of the voting population. Even if we don’t meet that goal this time, there are still many potential ballots waiting for the results.
Political junkies may be desperate to read the tea leaves with only a few days until the election, but at this point the results are mostly just hot water.
(BBC)
(BBC)
North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher provides insight into the race for the White House in his biweekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in Britain can sign up here. Those outside Britain can sign up here.