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Early voting has begun and election observers are paying close attention to what these numbers mean for the results of the November 5 elections. Yet it is let voters decide who will ultimately determine who wins the presidency, the House and the Senate. While it’s hard to believe that there are still people who haven’t decided who they’re going to vote for, these individuals do exist. Early voters tend to be among the most partisan, while late decision makers are often among the least informed and least partisan among us. It is therefore very important to understand who these people are and what helps them make a decision.
An examination of the battle for the U.S. Senate in Ohio is instructive. The breed is the most expensive in the countryspending over $400 million and counting. It is considered essential that Democrats win if they want to retain control of the Senate.
The race between incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno appears very close. Drawing of a poll of likely voters in Ohio we recently conducted, we find a significant number of respondents who have yet to decide who they will ultimately support (7%). We see that Brown is up 47% compared to Moreno’s 45%. This small number of undecideds translates to more than 400,000 voters if Ohio’s turnout matches 2020 levels.
(Voter’s Guide 2024: the candidates, the voting measures and the tools you need to cast your vote.)
So who exactly are these people? In our survey, 79% are women, 78% are white, more than two-thirds have attended college up to a postgraduate degree, and 51% are independent. Fifty-two percent say they are moderate and 1 in 5 describe themselves as conservative. Undecided voters are more likely to be Republicans than Democrats (20% to 7%)
We also find that those who say they voted for Trump in 2020 are almost twice as likely to be an undecided voter than those who said they voted for Biden in 2020 (43% to 23%). We also see that they are much less active in politics than their more committed counterparts, reporting little involvement in politics and showing much less interest in political campaigns.
These findings are closely consistent with other studies. Late-deciding voters tend to be less partisan, less ideological, and less likely to have a college degree. They tend to be low voters and generally do not follow politics as closely as more committed voters. It’s likely that most of these undecided voters are only now starting to pay attention to the campaign, making the information they come into contact with incredibly powerful in shaping how they see the race.
In the Ohio Senate contest, both campaigns are well aware of these characteristics and are tailoring their messages accordingly. Moreno attacks Brown for doing that “an absolute extremist on abortion”, a message intended for moderates. Aiming to attract female voters, Moreno added: “I have two daughters and the most influential person in my life is my mother. Someone will always advocate for women and ensure that women are protected…” This message seems tailored to convince undecided female voters.
However, Moreno committed what could prove to be a damaging blunder video of him surfaced say:Unfortunately, by the way, there are a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women who say, “Listen, abortion is that. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for someone else.” OK. It’s kind of crazy, by the way, but – especially for women over 50, I think to myself, ‘I don’t think that’s a problem for you.’” Not surprisingly, the comments have been used by Brown supporters want to label Moreno as an extremist on women’s issues.
For his part, Brown has stuck to his message of promoting “dignity of work” and has made clear his opposition to trade deals struck by presidents from around the world. both parties. These messages are intended to resonate with moderate and independent voters – who are also among those most likely to be late deciders. Further promotion of his moderate and bipartisan party in good faithBrown’s campaign has run a commercial featuring the Republican Wood County Sheriff Mark Wasylyshyn. In the ad, Wasylyshyn says yes worked with Brown to stem the flow of fentanyl to the US, and that they visited the southern border together.
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The messaging lessons we observe here translate well to the late-deciding voters the presidential campaigns are trying to capture in swing states. Messaging these voters is key to shifting these late deciders to the Trump or Harris camp. It was the late decision makers that convinced Trump finish line in 2016 when they clearly paved his way in the final days of the elections. Given how close the race is today, reaching and convincing these voters is a top priority for both campaigns. It is these voters who will ultimately determine the outcome of many races across the country on November 5.
Robert Alexander is a professor of political science and the founding director of the Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network. He is the author of Representation and the Electoral College, published by Oxford University Press.
David J. Jackson is a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio. His main research interest is in the relationship between politics and culture. He is the author of the book ‘Entertainment and politics: The influence of pop culture on the political socialization of young adults”, as well as articles in magazines such as Quarterly report on political research, Polish-American Studies, International press/politics magazineAnd Journal of Political Marketing.
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