Shortly after the 2012 Queensland election, I met long-serving Howard MP Peter Lindsay in the corridors of federal parliament.
Lindsay held Herbert’s seat in Townsville for 14 years.
He was a Liberal warrior and a Howard loyalist.
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He was also a good judge of political character.
He also wanted to share his views on one particular newly elected member of the Queensland Parliament.
“Keep an eye out for that Crisafulli,” Lindsay told me.
“He will be prime minister one day.”
Lindsay said this with a distinct note of pride. He helped recruit Crisafulli into politics from the world of broadcast journalism.
And if the polls are correct, Lindsay’s predictions will come true on Saturday.
Labor Prime Minister Steven Miles ran a better campaign. It probably won’t matter. The wave of change in the Sunshine State has been building for two years.
When Queensland wavers, it wavers badly.
Queensland Premier Steven Miles. Loan: DARREN ENGLAND/AAPIMAGE
Everything indicates that this will happen next weekend.
Miles ran a populist campaign, appealing to voters through their pockets and their children’s stomachs.
He also made a dominant social media play, capturing the attention of ever-distracted younger voters with a quirky, often funny series of TikTok videos.
He combined this with a generous and pocket-friendly appeal for parents’ votes.
Miles reduced public transportation fares to 50 cents, introduced free school lunches and gave households a $1,000 rebate on their electric bills.
He stuffed dirty mixes into the pockets of every voter in the state.
It was the most shameless vote-buying campaign in recent political history.
And it worked. But only to a certain extent.
This has dragged most of Labour’s votes out of the toilet, although it is unlikely to prevent its influence over the government being washed away.
On the other hand, Crisafulli’s strategy of attacking small targets put him well behind, defending himself with a lack of detail.
However, his biggest threat comes from left field.
Katter’s Australian Party leader Robbie Katter, Bob’s son, dropped a huge bombshell on the campaign trail earlier this month by promising to pass legislation banning abortion by private members.
She immediately hampered Crisafulli, who had voted against decriminalizing abortion in 2018 and now found it difficult to make a clear stance as some of his LNP colleagues expressed tacit support for Katter’s proposal.
Ultimately, Crisafulli took a strong stance at the latest leaders’ debate this week, unequivocally supporting a woman’s right to choose.
But campaign observers say many women have already begun to reconsider their votes.
The combination of all these issues meant that during the campaign Labor’s primary vote increased by 10 points and the LNP dropped by 4 points.
However, the LNP still has a 53-47 advantage after preferences.
Voter anger is an important factor.
Agents on both sides of the campaign tell me they can hear voters across the state hitting their hands with baseball bats.
This is never good for the government.
Queensland Opposition Leader David Crisafulli. Loan: JONO SEARLE/AAPIMAGE
Federal strategists will be watching the results with interest.
Labor holds just five of Queensland’s 30 federal seats. They’re all in Brisbane.
Anthony Albanese was hoping to buy a few more to buy insurance before the upcoming federal election next year.
But party strategists fear Labour’s brand problems will spread to harm them.
They don’t have much faith in the theory that voters will take out their anger by breaking up their state government.
Living and housing costs were highly rated in the state campaign. Both are federal issues.
Peter Dutton continually brings concerns about youth crime – the state’s other major problem – to the federal sphere.
An LNP victory would provide Dutton with a strong symbolic advantage but would have little practical impact on his ability to win more seats in the state.
His party holds 21 seats in Queensland. In 2022, it lost two to the Greens. It is unlikely to get them back.
However, if Peter Lindsay’s predictions come true this weekend, it should help the federal LNP retain its current seats in federal Queensland.
It will also give the Coalition a sense of victory.
And Peter Dutton will take it any day now.