| Associated press
Kiev, Ukraine – A high-tech factory in central Russia has created a new, deadly force to attack Ukraine: a small number of highly destructive thermobaric drones surrounded by huge swarms of cheap foam decoys.
The plan, which Russia dubbed Operation False Target, is aimed at forcing Ukraine to spend scarce resources on saving lives and preserving critical infrastructure, including through the use of expensive air defense munitions, according to a person familiar with the matter. Russian production and a Ukrainian electronics expert who hunts them from his specially equipped van.
Neither radar, snipers, nor even electronics experts can tell which drones are deadly in the air.
Here’s what you need to know from AP’s research:
A deadly mix
Unarmed decoys now make up more than half of the drones targeting Ukraine and as many as 75% of new drones coming out of the factory in Russia’s Alabuga special economic zone, according to the person familiar with Russian production, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the industry is very sensitive, and the Ukrainian electronics expert.
The same factory produces a particularly lethal variant of the Shahed unmanned aircraft armed with thermobaric warheads, the person said.
During the first weekend of November, the Kiev region was under an air raid alert for 20 hours, and the sound of buzzing drones mixed with the roar of air defenses and gunfire. In October, Moscow attacked with at least 1,889 drones — 80% more than in August, according to an AP analysis that tracked the drones for months.
On Saturday, Russia launched 145 drones across Ukraine, just days after Donald Trump’s re-election cast doubt on US support for the country.
Most drones have crashed, shot down or been diverted by electronic jamming since the summer, according to an AP analysis of Ukrainian military briefings. According to data AP has analyzed since late July, fewer than 6% met an observable target. But the numbers alone mean a handful can slip through every day – and that’s enough to be fatal.
The drone lab
Tatarstan’s Alabuga zone, an industrial complex about 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow, is a laboratory for Russian drone production. Originally founded in 2006 to attract business and investment to Tatarstan, it expanded after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and some sectors switched to military production, adding new buildings and renovating existing sites, according to satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press.
In videos on social media, the factory promoted itself as an innovation center. But David Albright of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said Alabuga’s current purpose is purely to produce and sell drones to the Russian Defense Ministry. The videos and other promotional media were removed after an AP investigation found that many of the African women recruited to fill the labor shortage there complained they had been tricked into taking jobs at the factory.
Russia and Iran signed a $1.7 billion deal for the Shaheds in 2022, after President Vladimir Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine and Moscow began using Iranian imports of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, in combat later that year. Shortly after the deal was signed, production began in Alabuga.
The most fearsome Shahed modification yet designed at the factory is armed with thermobaric weapons known as vacuum bombs, the person with knowledge of Russian drone production said.
The plan to develop unarmed decoy drones in Alabuga emerged in late 2022, the person with knowledge of Russian drone production said. Production of the decoys began earlier this year, said the person, who agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity. Now the factory produces about 40 unarmed drones per day and about 10 armed drones, which are more expensive and take longer to produce.
The vacuum bomb
From a military point of view, thermobarics are ideal for pursuing targets located in fortified buildings or deep underground. They create a vortex of high pressure and heat that penetrates the thickest walls while sucking all the oxygen in their path.
Alabuga’s thermobaric drones are particularly destructive when they hit buildings, as they are also loaded with ball bearings to deal maximum damage even outside of the superheated blast.
Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian electronics expert better known as “Flash,” whose black military van is equipped with electronic jammers to disable drones, said the thermobarics were first used during the summer and estimates they are now between 3% and 5%. % of all drones.
They have a terrifying reputation because of the physical consequences even for people caught outside the original explosion site: collapsed lungs, shattered eyeballs, brain damage, according to Arthur van Coller, an expert in international humanitarian law at South Africa’s University of Fort Hare.
For Russia the benefits are enormous.
An unarmed drone costs significantly less than the estimated $50,000 for an armed Shahed drone and a small fraction of the cost of even a relatively cheap air defense missile. A single decoy with a live feed camera allows the aircraft to geolocate Ukrainian air defenses and relay the information to Russia in the final moments of its mechanical life. And the swarms have become a demoralizing fact for Ukrainians.