Florida could be in the crosshairs of future Tropical Storm Sara
The system that is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara will bring extreme rainfall to Central America, but it could also pose a danger to Florida.
- Tropical Depression Nineteen emerged Thursday morning
- The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today
- It’s too early to say how strong it will become and whether it will threaten Florida
There is talk of a tropical depression that formed in the Caribbean this morning is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
AccuWeather forecasters say that depending on what happens next, it could hit Florida next week, making it the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the state this year.
“Wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean, and waters are suitably warm (in the 80s F)” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said“And now that showers and thunderstorms are starting to gather, it probably won’t be much longer before the tropical depression develops into a tropical storm.”
The storm, now Tropical Depression 19, is expected to continue moving west through Friday, the NHC said, possibly making landfall in Honduras. Forecasters predict heavy rain and flooding in parts of Central America, but what happens next depends on several factors.
- As it moves inland, it may weaken before re-entering the Gulf.
- If it stays offshore, it can continue to strengthen in the future hot water under the same kinds of conditions that produced hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene.
- If the high-pressure dome currently along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States stays where it is and the approaching cold front slows down, it could send the storm into Central America or southeastern Mexico, where it may not have time to regain hurricane strength. before Florida was threatened, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
- If the high pressure clears and the front arrives, the potential hurricane would have a clear track moving towards Florida as a stronger storm.
“If it has spent days over land, that could mean a less defined low merging with the front, with consequences mostly in the form of enhanced showers and thunderstorms across the state,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger in Tallahassee.
“If the country has spent little or no time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. Most likely, that conditional threat would center on Southwest Florida or the Keys, with the potential for crossover effects in Southeast Florida. , as in 1999’s Irene or 2005’s Wilma,” he said.
➤ Spaghetti models for tropical depression Nineteen
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Next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season would be Sarah.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of Thursday, November 14 at 4 a.m. EST:
Tropical depression nineteen: what you need to know
Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
- Location: 15.9N 82.2W, 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 90 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border
- Maximum sustained wind: 35 km/h
- Current movement: West at 15 km/h
- Minimum central pressure: 1004MB
How strong is Tropical Depression 19 and where is it going?
At 7 a.m. EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.9 north and longitude 82.2 west. The depression is moving west at a speed of 15 miles per hour. This movement should continue until today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to linger and meander near Honduras’ northern coast late Friday and through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 km per hour with higher gusts. Some reinforcement is expected over the next 48 hours.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and will continue to strengthen if the depression remains above water.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Spaghetti models for tropical depression Nineteen, future tropical storm Sara
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for tropical depression Nineteen
Watches, warnings issued
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane Watching:
- Punta Castilla to the border between Honduras and Nicaragua
- The Bay Islands of Honduras
Tropical Storm Warning:
- Punta Sal to the border between Honduras and Nicaragua
- The Bay Islands of Honduras
Tropical Storm Watch:
- Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas
Will Tropical Depression Nineteen be the next hurricane to hit Florida?
It’s too early to tell if this will be the case, although some models suggest it could turn a corner and hit the state.
AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno says families, businesses, emergency officials and government leaders in South and Central Florida should be prepared for possible impacts next week.
“This is a recipe for explosive intensification,” Rayno said. “Everyone should be prepared for the possibility of a hurricane making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast next week. It’s time to get ready.”
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center
- Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
- The disturbance is expected to approach hurricane strength as it moves along the east coast of Honduras on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane warnings and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of that area.
- The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula at or near hurricane force early next week, where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
- It is too early to determine what impact the system could have on parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba, by the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should check forecast updates regularly.
Current forecast: How strong can Tropical Depression Nineteen become?
- From 4 a.m.: 35 km/h
- 12 hours: 40 km/h
- 24 hours: 45 km/h
- 36 hours: 60 km/h
- 48 hours: 65 km/h, near the coast
- 60 hours: 65 km/h, near the coast
- 72 hours: 60 km/h, inland
- 96 hours: 65 km/h, over water
- 120 hours: 50 km/h, inland
What impact could Tropical Depression Nineteen have?
RAINFALL: Between 10 and 20 inches of rain will fall through early next week, with isolated storms totaling about 30 inches in area over northern Honduras. These rainfalls will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to bring 6 to 10 inches of rain through early next week, with local totals around 6 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, which may be significant, along with the possibility of mudslides.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possibly in the watch area starting late today.
STORM CURRENT: A storm surge could raise water levels along the immediate coast in areas with onshore winds along Honduras’ northern coast by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels. Near the coast the wave will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
National Hurricane Center Map: What Else Is and How Likely are They to Strengthen?
Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is middle and red is high.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.
When is hurricane season in Florida?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
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Excessive rainfall forecast
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What do the watches and warnings mean?
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first appearance of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
What’s next?
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(This story has been updated with new information.)