Key points: Recent Russian tactical gains in southern Donetsk have increased pressure on Ukrainian forces, with notable progress near Vuhledar and towns such as Hirnyk and Kurakhivka, British military intelligence said. These advances include the capture of small towns along a twenty-kilometer front, increasing Russia’s ability to threaten Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Ukraine.
Despite the high number of casualties – an average of more than 1,000 per day – Russian forces are supporting this advance with continued recruitment, using attrition tactics that Kiev opposes to preserve its manpower.
-As the conflict continues, Russia’s numerical advantage in troops remains a strategic hurdle for Ukraine.
Russia’s ruthless tactics are yielding gains despite mounting losses
The Russian armed forces have made significant tactical progress in recent weeks. Although the Russian military has failed to achieve an operational breakthrough that would open the way to winning the war, its tactical successes put pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces.
Russian tactical gains and high demand
In its latest assessment of the conflict, British military intelligence estimates that “in the southern Donetsk Oblast Russian Armed Forces have made progress in several areas along a 20 km wide front.”
“Russian forces have taken control of several small towns and have advanced up to 9 km in some areas within a week. This progress stems from Russia gaining control of Vuhledar in early October 2024,” British military intelligence assessed.
Since September, the Russian armed forces have made slow but gradual progress in certain parts of the contact line. The Donbas This is mainly where Russian forces have made gains, although the Kharkov area in eastern Ukraine is also active.
“Also in the southern Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces have captured the town of Hirnyk and claim to have captured Kurakhivka. 15 km southeast of Pokrvosk, Russia has seized Selydove, likely creating further conditions for Russia to threaten the Pokrovsk logistics hub,” British military intelligence added in its operational estimate.
The Ukrainian army is fighting hard to maintain control in Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub on that part of the battlefield that would be a major blow if it fell into the hands of Russian forces. For starters, it would be limiting of the Ukrainian army ability to conduct both offensive and defensive operations in the sector.
“Russia continues to prioritize Donetsk’s southern frontlines and maintains a favorable force ratio in this sector, which partly explains the increased pace of Russia’s advance,” British military intelligence said.
The big question is for how long the Russian army can the pace of progress be sustained? Because it’s not cheap. For more than six months, or 180 days, the Russian armed forces have been killing an average of more than a thousand victims every day. Sometimes the average rises to as many as 1,300 victims per day for several weeks. And yet, despite the heavy lossesThe Russian army still has enough men to maintain World War I tactics on the battlefield.
“Despite heavy personnel losses, Russia continues to recruit large numbers to continue its operations in southern Ukraine,” British Military Intelligence concluded.
And the high casualty rate is partly the reason behind the recent tactical success of the Russian armed forces on the ground. Simply put, Moscow can put more men on the meat grinder, and it doesn’t matter. Kiev, on the other hand, has been very reluctant to devote all its manpower to the conflict, arguing that there must be enough young men to power the economy after the war. Western military aid can help the Ukrainian military kill and wound more Russian troops, but the number of troops also matters. And in that regard, the Russian army has a clear advantage.
About the author
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist, specializing in special operations and a Greek Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work can be seen in Business insider, ZandboxxAnd SOFREP.
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