If Election As the day approaches, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots across the country.
Whether through mail-in ballots or early in-person polling places, more than 68 million Americans, about 43% of 2020 turnout, had voted against waiting in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to data from the The University of Florida Elections Laboratory.
Academics, reporters and pundits have been combing through basic and limited data from the early voting tallies, trying to get clues about next week’s outcome.
That picture, however, is not exactly black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the election data science lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etc. – are really trying to draw conclusions just based on the face value of the data, but there’s really not much to say about who wins.”
That said, Stewart said the early voting data does offer some insights when it comes to this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election is shaping up.
A sea change in the way people vote early
Voting trends show that more and more people are choosing to cast their ballot before Election Day, and this has increased over the past three decades, but Stewart said 2020 proved to be a major outlier.
In the last presidential election, 69% of the total 158 million votes were cast before Election Day, either by mail, including ballots delivered in person, or through early voting polling places, according to MIT data.
About 43% of early votes in 2020 came from mail-in ballots, according to the data.
Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic forced many voters, who were already highly engaged and wanted to be safe, to opt for using mail-in ballots or smaller voting lines, when available.
“There was speculation about what would happen to the shift once the pandemic was over,” he said.
However, this year’s early voting has seen a decline in the number of voters opting to vote by mail, Stewart said.
“The main trend I see is that interest in voting by mail has shifted to in-person voting,” Stewart said.
He noted that a shift is visible in Georgia, which has recorded record numbers for early voting, with more than 3.8 million votes cast as of Friday. About 92% of those were cast at in-person polling places and the rest by mail, the The office of the Secretary of State of Georgia.
Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, are only offering early voting through in-person absentee options. With this option, a voter must request an absentee ballot, fill it out, then drop it off in a ballot box or designated location and be counted as a vote-by-mail voter.
Some voters may not have the time or energy to go through those extra steps to cast their ballots early, and will likely vote in person, Stewart said.
“If you have to vote early in person, you have to figure out where that precinct is, but you also have to figure out what’s closer to your home or groceries. With voting by mail, you have to make the effort to sign up, to fill it out and send it back and hope the mail gets delivered on time,” he said. “With Election Day voting, you probably have a polling place much closer to you.”
According to Stewart, the preference for the early voting method is not the only thing that has seen a change.
Lot numbers do not give any indication of the outcome
Stewart said historical trends show the majority of early voters made their decisions long ago and are likely politically active.
This year’s data shows that to be the case, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
Registered Republicans have seen higher early voting turnout in battleground states Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina in this election as of Friday, compared to 2024, according to the data.
Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. However, Trump has pushed his supporters to cast their votes earlier and that appears to be having an impact, Stewart said.
While Republican officials have touted these higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautioned that there is more nuance to the data.
He noted that so far shows that a large number of the registered Republicans who cast ballots early were from people who voted on Election Day in 2020 and were not new voters.
Stewart said this would mean fewer Republican voters would cast ballots on Election Day, meaning their votes might not be reported until much later on election night or even days afterward.
In 2020, many swing states saw their Democratic numbers rise on election night and throughout the week, creating a “red mirage” on the outcome.
That mirage and “blue wave” could be muted this time, Stewart said.
“Whatever the blue shift is, there will likely be less of a steep slope,” he said.
What do gender and race say about early voting?
Democrats have touted the gender gap as a factor in their favor in early voting numbers, as more than 54% of women cast ballots Friday, according to data from the University of Florida.
Stewart said that assumption is not remarkable.
Women have always been the majority of the electorate in presidential elections, as far back as 1980.The Center for Women and Politics at Rutgers University.
Stewart said this also applies to early voters.
“It’s not always clear to the public that there has always been a gender gap,” he said.
When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to cast ballots by mail than black voters, the MIT data shows.
Stewart said this comes from traditions dating back to the civil rights movement.
“African Americans fought and sometimes died because they could march into the voting booth. That has been instilled in the community,” he said.
The practice is one factor driving large numbers of Black voters to polling places for in-person voting in states like Georgia and South Carolina, where that option is available.
Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the black community have been pushing voters to head to the early polls, using “souls to the polls” campaigns so they can avoid complications on Election Day.
Groups in Georgia in particular have emphasized early voting to get around some of these rules restrictive voting laws that have been introduced since the 2020 elections.
More than 1 million black voters cast their ballots on Friday evening, according to the Georgian foreign minister’s office.
“The mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.
Signs point to high turnout
Stewart said the only definitive conclusion to be drawn from the early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be “on par” with 2020, which was the highest percentage turnout in more than 100 years.
“It could be in the high 160s (million),” he estimated.
Stewart said early voting trends have shown that voters under the age of 25 have not yet voted and will typically be in line on Election Day.
“These populations are really strongly represented on Election Day,” he said.
Stewart reiterated that now that the pandemic is over, a large number of 2020 early voters will likely return to voting on Election Day, especially if it presents itself as the more convenient option for their locations and schedules.
Looking ahead, Steward predicted that the increase in Republican voters voting early will continue in future cycles, along with the overall trend of voters opting for early voting.
“The data shows this organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more choices.”
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