12-27. That’s the stat that will be most remembered from the 2024 campaign. It was the Twins’ win/loss record over the final six weeks, after reaching a high of 17 games above .500 in mid-August.
But there were a lot of other numbers involved in last season, many of which help tell interesting stories about what happened to the team and its players. When I dug deeper into player stats in the aftermath of the 2024 season, these eight really stood out to me.
Matt Wallner had a batting average of .389 on balls in play.
That’s just an astonishingly high number. It ranked second in all of baseball among players with 200 or more plate appearances behind them Xavier Edwards (.398), and it’s pretty funny that these two are at the top of the list, because their styles couldn’t be more opposite. (Edwards is a small man with extreme contact, without power, similar to Luis Arraez.)
Wallner’s hitting profile did play a role in many batted balls turning into hits – if you consistently crush the ball, you’ll find fewer gloves – but it took a lot of luck that he managed a .259 average while hitting out in 36% of plate appearances. Wallner’s K-rate was fifth highest among players with more than 200 PA, and no one else in the top 10 had a batting average above .214.
In other words, Wallner will have to cut back on strikeouts significantly next year or we can expect a sharp decline in average and overall production.
The Twins had 3 batters finish with a wOBA above .340.
I’m not just talking about qualified hitters. I’m talking about all the hitters. (Well, expected Diego Castillowho posted a wOBA of .439 in eight at-bats.) The only Twins players to post a wOBA of .340 or higher in 2024 were Wallner (.385), Carlos Correa (.385) and Byron Buxton (.366), and none played more than 102 games. From there it descends to Trevor Larnach who finished fourth with a .336 wOBA.
This says a lot about why the lineup was so disappointing. There simply weren’t enough notable producers. For comparison, in 2023 the Twins had seven hitters with a wOBA of .340 or better: Royce LewisWallner, Ryan Jeffers, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff And Jorge Polanco. Everyone else except Polanco returned in 2024, but only Wallner could repeat his strong performance – and only after spending the first half in Triple-A.
Griffin Jax caused swings on 41.2% of pitches outside the zone.
There are plenty of stats that could be cited to show Jax’s greatness in 2024, but I really like this one. One of the most reliable and effective things a pitcher can do is cause opponents to chase outside the zone, and Jax was masterful at that, leading the American League in percentage above.
It’s a reflection of how Jax utterly baffles opponents with his fastball/sweeper combo, which is among the most dominant pitch combinations in the game.
Only 5 of the 17 Twins hitters had above-average sprint speed.
You probably noticed that this was a slow team. The evidence supports this. The Twins only had five above-average runners in 2024, and I was mildly surprised to hear Wallner was one of them. The others are less surprising: Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, Willie Castro, Manuel Margot.
Some of the names at the bottom of the list are actually even more surprising to me. Christian Vazquez the latter ranking is expected, but the second slowest is Brooks Leewhose sprint speed is in the 13th percentile. Slower than Ryan Jeffers. Slower than the 38-year-old first baseman Carlos Santana. You’ve got to be one of the slowest middle infielders we’ve ever seen.
Jhoan Duran‘s xERA (2.70), FIP (2.85) and xFIP (2.70) were all nearly a series lower than his ERA (3.64).
These numbers all tell the same story: Durán was extremely unlucky this season and pitched much better than the inflated ERA or nine losses would suggest. It’s pretty easy to argue that he performed as well as he did in 2023, when he finished with a 2.45 ERA, but things happen in baseball: bad order, bad defense, general bad luck.
Durán led the team in groundball rate; in fact, he ranked sixth in baseball. He allowed fewer walks and fewer home runs than last year. His strikeout rate was very good. Even though Durán lost a few ticks of speed, he did all the important things at the top level, and that’s why everyone should have full confidence in him going forward.
Louie Varland gave up home runs on 21.1% of flyouts allowed.
Nearly one in four balls that opponents put into the air against Varland left the yard. That’s wild. Even for someone who doesn’t pitch well, it’s an extraordinary HR/FB rate. For context, the leader among qualified pitchers was Boston reliever Zak Kelly at 20.8%, and only seven MLB relievers (not starters) were above 17 percent.
I find it notable that xFIP, which attempts to normalize HR rate, had Varland at 4.14 this year, compared to his ERA of 7.61. It feels a little weird to say, “If you take away all the homers, he didn’t throw that bad!” But is there any truth in it? I’m optimistic about Lou in the future.
Edouard Julien struck out 175 times between the majors and minors.
After a stellar rookie season, Julien’s patient approach gave way to passivity as pitchers took control, in the major leagues and even in Triple-A, where he struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances.
Only one Twins hitter in history has struck out more than 175 batters in a season and you can certainly guess who it is: Miguel Sano. Sanó is even the only Twin to ever strikeout more than 150 batters in a season. While top guys like him and Wallner can whiff at that pace and still provide value, I’m not sure the same goes for Julien.
Alex Kirilloff had a line drive percentage of 13%.
It was the lowest among all Twins hitters and lower than any qualified hitter in baseball. In 2023, Kirilloff’s 30.9% line drive rate led the team and would have led all qualified hitters. It’s a clear demonstration of how much his play declined after that strong 2023 campaign, with an undisclosed back injury certainly playing a role.
The Twins are in one tough situation with Kirilloff this offseasonwho will have to pay nearly $2 million in arbitration next year. They know he can be a liner squirter at best, but also that he was far from that version this season and now faces his fourth straight offseason health uncertainty.