The signing of Christian Walker by the Houston Astros could have created deja vu among the fanbase as it was another expensive contract for an aging first base slugger.
The three-year, $60 million contract he was dealt is a shadow of the $58.5 million they gave Jose Abreu for the same duration ahead of the 2023 season.
Despite clearly needing this position, fans may be a little fed up with this deal as Walker will also be in his mid-30s when the upcoming campaign begins and the last one they made of this magnitude became one of the worst signings in history. team history, if not all of Major League Baseball.
But Walker’s advanced stats show a player still peaking.
Last year his average bat speed was 75 mph, good for a top 25 finish among all hitters.
Although this is a new statistic tracked by Baseball savantthe list above him is littered with some of the best offensive players in the sport, a great sign that he will be able to continue his production of the past three seasons where he has delivered his best performances.
During that time, he slashed approximately .250/.332/.481 with a total of 95 home runs and 281 RBI, in addition to producing an OPS+ above 120 in every campaign.
Walker’s barrel rate was also in the 82nd, 75th and 90th percentiles, allowing him to land heavy hits in the 72nd, 47th and 86th percentiles.
His strikeout totals are high on paper at over 125 in each of the last three years, but his chase rate has been above 25% only once in that span, while his walk rate has been in the 70th percentile.
Walker is getting on base and being productive, and while Abreu’s numbers looked great during his Astros tenure, his advanced stats told a different story with a barrel rate dropping and a chase rate routinely above 30%.
All of this without even mentioning Walker’s defense is something that will happen a big plus for Houston and their aging star second baseman Jose Altuve.
No one has been worth more Outs Above Average at first base over the last three years than Walker, as evidenced by his three consecutive Gold Glove awards, so compared to Abreu, who was worth minus 7 OAA before signing with the Astros, that’s already an upgrade in that respect.
Fans may be nervous about this deal based on the past, but the slugger should be a huge upgrade at the plate and in the field compared to what they’ve gotten over the past few seasons.