MADISON, Wis. (AP) – Sensing an opportunity in the swing state of Wisconsin, Republicans are pouring money into trying to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in that state’s closely watched Senate race.
Democrats have also stepped up their efforts in a contest that remains crucial to their hopes of maintaining their Senate majority. They maintain an overall spending advantage and insist that competition will always intensify as Election Day approaches.
A loss in Wisconsin to GOP candidate Eric Hovde would make it extremely difficult to maintain the Democratic majority in a national landscape where Republicans have significantly fewer seats to defend this year.
That prospect makes Republicans optimistic about the race. “There’s a pretty clear toss up right now,” said Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman, who worked on Sen. Ron Johnson’s winning 2022 campaign.
As of Monday, Democrats had outspent Republicans in ad spending in the Wisconsin Senate race by $93 million to $69 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. Baldwin’s campaign accounts for more than a third of all Democratic advertising spending, while Hovde is more reliant on outside groups.
However, Republicans invested more in advertising than Democrats, committing $21 million to spots reserved from Monday through Nov. 5 compared to $15 million for spots reserved by Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of the new GOP spending comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has set aside $13.1 million for advertising spots.
“The party is on my side,” Hovde said last week at a forum in Milwaukee. “I plan to win this race. I will win this race because I am going to focus on what is important. “
Baldwin, who campaigned in western Wisconsin on Monday with vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, said in a statement to the Associated Press that she was not surprised by the state of the race.
“We always knew the race was going to be tight,” Baldwin said. “That’s why I’m working every day to unite Wisconsinites through my campaign. … I’m sure we have the strength, momentum and message to win next month.”
Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff said Hovde has increased his support among Republicans and has money to spend to spread his message, including outside funding. Hovde has loaned the campaign at least $13 million of his own money to be spent on the race.
To win, Baldwin just has to be himself and show off his record, Baldauff said.
“That’s one of her strengths and one of the things that sets this race apart from other Senate races across the country,” Baldauff said. “The fact that people know who she is, she’s doing what she says she’s going to do and she’s showing up all over Wisconsin.”
Zimmerman, the Republican strategist, said Baldwin faces the toughest political environment of any of his three races. Hovde has the upper hand on issues such as the economy and immigration and must focus on those who want to win, Zimmerman said.
“Wisconsin has always been on a knife edge,” Zimmerman said. “Fifty-fifty choices are the rule here, and she has always been the exception. What you see here is a return to that principle.”
Four of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin were decided by less than a percentage point. Her U.S. Senate races weren’t as close – Baldwin won by almost 6 points in her first race in 2012 and by almost 11 points in 2018. But in 2022, Johnson won a third term by just a single point.
Baldwin’s race is crucial for Democrats, who are defending 23 Senate seats, including three held by independents who caucus with Democrats maintaining a 51-49 majority. By comparison, Republicans hope to keep just 11 seats in their column.
Baldwin said she is using the same strategy as in previous campaigns, traveling to both red and blue parts of the state, touting her record in fighting for Wisconsin farmers and the middle class. This week alone, she planned to appear in every major media market in the state.
To shore up her bipartisan bona fides, Baldwin won the endorsement of the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau for her work on behalf of the state’s agriculture and dairy industries, making her the first Democratic candidate in a statewide race to win the race in more than 20 years.
Baldwin attacked Hovde as an out-of-touch millionaire carpet-packer who wants to cut Social Security and Medicare, repeal the Affordable Care Act and support a national abortion ban. The ads focused on Hovde’s role as CEO of H Bancorp and its main subsidiary, Utah-based Sunwest Bank, and the fact that he owns a $7 million property in Laguna Beach, California.
Hovde was born in Madison, has a home there and says he has never been a permanent resident of California.
She also hit out at him over his previous statements expressing his opposition to abortion rights and his support for restoring the federal budget to 2019 levels, which Democrats say will result in massive cuts to popular programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and veterans benefits.
Hovde claims that Baldwin distorted his position. On the issue of Social Security, for example, Hovde has stated that he supports raising the retirement age only to receive benefits for people in their 40s or younger and that he does not want to take away benefits from older people, as the Baldwin TV ad claims.
Hovde has softened his stance on abortion since his first term in the Senate in 2012, which Baldwin took advantage of in the ad. Hovde now says he wouldn’t vote for a federal ban and that the issue should be left to the states.
Hovde sees Baldwin, who has held the job for nearly 40 years, as a career politician who has not done enough to secure the borders and help the economy. He accuses her of avoiding voters by agreeing to only one debate, which is to be broadcast live on Friday evening.
“I’m going to focus on connecting with everyone and answering their questions,” Hovde said last week, criticizing Baldwin for agreeing to only one debate. “I will never run away from difficult questions.”
If Hovde wins, Wisconsin will be represented in the Senate for the first time since 1957 by two Republicans. But Republicans would have to overcome Democratic momentum that has led to their candidates winning 14 of the last 17 statewide elections.
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